Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 67973.633408 71913.446322 75859.660093 80105.874298 84542.720125 89038.930840 93936.743278
2025-03-23 61793.654690 67830.392340 74053.849230 80939.817421 88335.848893 96031.521768 104634.791775
2025-03-30 57343.541391 64816.208660 72697.378841 81609.355611 91386.962715 101767.785731 113602.199309
2025-04-06 53557.189809 62059.438494 71200.406269 81726.729502 93480.490673 106167.560967 120863.458370
2025-04-13 50349.589209 59639.185239 69797.041014 81681.746230 95156.203446 109909.074265 127232.060236
2025-04-20 48429.201189 58486.480163 69648.276670 82889.735273 98101.911353 114962.482230 134992.093493
2025-04-27 46752.252766 57476.165609 69540.848916 84035.086869 100886.626259 119771.082229 142439.943029
2025-05-04 44945.606392 56196.881288 69018.734104 84606.318990 102932.530132 123680.983274 148828.692277
2025-05-11 43002.495441 54650.142646 68088.702648 84612.067491 104245.675004 126690.630855 154142.578610
2025-05-18 41353.291006 53370.359913 67397.661131 84829.142399 105747.998772 129878.432273 159640.814317
2025-05-25 39778.656179 52106.344479 66658.274437 84926.355525 107056.828205 132803.521033 164812.182236
2025-06-01 38799.421286 51523.301108 66698.092963 85925.745587 109419.271402 136963.738010 171453.408444
2025-06-08 37189.022575 50112.611757 65695.563829 85636.008470 110222.422854 139283.779867 175947.263315
2025-06-15 36441.589264 49755.638054 65968.048008 86897.328180 112911.812679 143883.548833 183217.087716
2025-06-22 35523.780231 49141.819923 65887.102881 87693.184310 115013.517068 147770.772394 189642.609283
2025-06-29 34361.720475 48168.445328 65313.891702 87837.176702 116281.240858 150627.327158 194814.234733
2025-07-06 33184.823576 47132.077128 64621.137767 87793.898668 117286.496788 153144.381467 199566.310998
2025-07-13 32663.099506 46932.911400 64980.825142 89075.550303 119951.425554 157717.591538 206878.049380
2025-07-20 32143.898932 46714.306377 65297.495169 90289.841716 122528.278427 162190.827511 214092.502892
2025-07-27 31396.944534 46162.894952 65157.569430 90895.327759 124318.819612 165681.926530 220097.657025
2025-08-03 30441.321983 45297.337507 64576.820518 90901.431953 125321.760025 168174.039840 224853.873473
2025-08-10 29622.482126 44591.625851 64183.271028 91131.494850 126598.540318 171006.471604 230046.111918
2025-08-17 28792.482700 43843.918681 63709.732386 91234.521741 127694.896742 173603.264424 234945.685691